In a recent Bloomberg Television report for its program Wall Street Week, Northback’s new CEO Bradley Johnson made the following claims:
“As early as 2030, there will be a shortage of steelmaking coal, and by 2040 it could be as much as 100 million tons a year. The whole world very much wants this coal.”
Specifically, Johnson said, Japan and Korea “are very interested in pursuing us a supplier.”
Link to Bloomberg Television report on Northback
Even allowing for the reluctance of courteous Asian interlocutors to ever say “no” to anything, Johnson’s assertions are at best naieve, and otherwise downright disingenuous. Even his predecessor, the unlamented Mike Young had the honesty to admit that Northback’s Grassy Mountain coal was second-rate. “It’s not Waygu”, he said, comparing Grassy Mountain coal to Japan’s highest grade of beef.
The documented truth is that the official forecasts for Japan and Korea say that demand for metallurgical coal has peaked and is now in permanent decline. Japan currently accounts for 10 percent of metallurgical coal imports and South Korea 9 percent.
The global authority on energy markets is the International Energy Agency. Here is what it said in its Coal 2025 report (page 18) on metallurgical coal:
Looking ahead, global met coal demand is forecast to decline gradually to 1 061 Mt (million tonnes) by 2030. This trajectory reflects structural changes in steelmaking and slower growth in industrial activity. The most pronounced reductions are expected in China, where demand could fall by 77 Mt, offsetting gains in India (up 26 Mt) and Indonesia (up 12 Mt). Consumption in the European Union, Japan and Korea is projected to contract by a combined 21 Mt, while the rest of the world sees only marginal growth. Overall, global met coal demand is set to decline by 53 Mt between 2025 and 2030, underscoring the gradual transition in steelmaking technologies and regional economic dynamics.
Clearly, the only thing Northback mines from Grassy Mountain is bullshit.